The Crisis in Ukraine: Explained
(from: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in maps — latest updates, Financial Times, FT Visual & Data Journalism team, November 3, 2022)
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. This followed an earlier crisis that began in April 2014, when Russia entered Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and illegally annexed the territory, claiming to protect ethnic Russians living in the region from “far right extremists.” Ukraine was unable to retake Crimea and over the past seven years, the two countries have focused on fighting over various territories in Eastern Ukraine that comprise Donbas, such as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, the situation began to change in 2021 as Russia started to gather troops and equipment along the Ukrainian border.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his “special military operation” in Ukraine, he sought to quickly take over the country and replace its government. However, Russia vastly underestimated the ability of the Ukrainians to put up a strong resistance and the ability of the West to quickly create a united front. By mid-March 2022, it had become apparent that the war was not going as planned as noted by Viktor Zolotov, a member of Putin’s security council and head of the Russian national guard. Over the course of the next eight months, the Ukrainian forces managed to push the Russian forces back and by September 2022, they had reclaimed more than 3,000 square miles of previously occupied territory in the east and south. Ukraine’s success could be attributed to its sound military strategy, such as denying Russian air superiority and control of cities, as well as the significant military aid provided by Western countries, including over EUR 75 in military, financial and humanitarian assistance. In addition to the aid provided to Ukraine, Western countries have also enacted severe sanctions against Russia, although some have questioned whether they are having a strong enough impact as the Russian economy shrinks only by 6% and not the expected 15%.
Given Russia’s difficulties in holding onto Ukrainian territory, they have recently turned to other countries for both technology and weapons. Initially, this took the form of receiving drones and missiles from Iran. The more advanced weaponry, such as Shahed-136 drones and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles, allow Russia to accurately strike targets from greater distances. Furthermore, the U.S. National Security Spokesman, John Kirby, stated on November 2, 2022, that North Korea had begun to secretly ship a “significant number” of artillery munitions to Russia. If Russia is turning to other countries for missile supplies, this may be a strong indicator that they are running low on the munitions required to continue fighting Ukraine.
As winter approaches and fighting slows with the onset of the cold and mud, Russia seeks to make the situation as difficult as possible for the Ukrainians. In recent weeks, Russian missiles have targeted Ukraine’s critical infrastructure including power plants (damaging about 30 percent), heating systems, water supplies (disrupting water to about 80% of households in Kyiv) and electrical grids. This would appear to be a tactic to demoralize and break the Ukrainians’ resolve as the war drags on. In response, the U.S. and other nations of the Group of seven announced that they will assist Ukraine in rebuilding its damaged infrastructure and provide more military equipment that will help to defend against these drone and missile attacks.
Both sides are deeply entrenched as the Ukrainians defend their territory and Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to avoid damaging himself politically in Russia. Despite Ukraine’s advances, there does not appear to be any end in sight to the conflict, which has some fearing that Russia could resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. However, many hope that given the significant risks associated with the use of any nuclear weapons, these would outweigh any potential gains that Putin might expect.
All information is as of November 4th, 2022.
by MADELEINE HODGES