State of the Middle East
Start of the Conflict
On Jan. 3, Trump ordered a drone strike to terminate Iranian commander, Qasem Soleimani, who he accused of plotting attacks on the United States. Iran immediately responded that the attack, which the US considered to be an act of defense, warranted a response tantamount to war. Later that day, the Pentagon released a statement that blamed Soleimani for attacking several military bases in Iraq. Many were concerned about the destabilizing effect that the killing of Soleimani would have on the already tumultuous relations in the Middle East, opening up the opportunity for a new proxy war to ensue. The Iraqi government was also infuriated with the United States and vowed to remove US troops from the nation. Trump reciprocated this threat with increased economic sanctions.
The Iran Nuclear Deal and Oil Spikes
German foreign minister Heiko Maas warned that Soleimani’s death could be the end of the Iran Nuclear Deal (more formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) after Iran stated that it would no longer restrict uranium enrichment, as outlined in the pact. Iran said that it would now regulate its production based on its own perception of what was necessary. The country no longer recognizes a limit on enrichment or nuclear research and development. The deal was thought to be a pillar of global stability, and the EU Foreign Affairs chief reconfirmed its desire for a full reimplementation of the JCPOA. While this has happened before, is is possible that the US actions served as the final straw, permanently jeopardizing this agreement. Both oil prices and tension are high, with crude prices rising above 70 dollars. The oil that Saudi Arabia sends to the United States travels through the Strait of Hormuz, and there are concerns that Iran will close the strait, cutting off imports.
Iran strikes US Base
On Jan. 7, Iran struck a US base in Iraq with ballistic missiles. No Americans were harmed. It is unknown whether Iran truly missed, or whether they simply wanted to send a message to the US that they would not back down. While this was the peak of tensions and the world held their breath waiting for the next world war to begin, the tensions de-escalated, and Trump did not respond again with force. However, the lives of Iranian-Americans and Iraqi-Americans were upended as Iran took direct actions against the United States. The fear that is associated with the possibility of further retaliation in the future and for family living in Iran still continues today.
The Politics of the Strike
Although President Trump is claiming that he struck Iran to protect American interests, he might have used the media coverage of the event to divert attention away from his impeachment trial. Presidents facing removal from office, in particular, Bill Clinton, have historically used acts of war as a way to take the public eye away from their presidential flaws. Trump’s base of conservative voters are often very hawkish, and after his credibility was undermined, political pundits mused that Trump may have intended to rally his voting base around one of his core values: American nationalism and war-hawkishness.
How the tensions have de-escalated
Trump continues to uphold sanctions even though removing them is Iran’s condition to begin negotiations. On Jan. 25, Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, stated in an interview that Iran was willing to negotiate with the United States despite the current stalemate.
by PIA JAIN & ANGELIQUE PHAM