The Political Implications of the Government Shutdown
The U.S government reopened on January 25th, marking the official end of the longest partial government shutdown. President Donald Trump disavowed responsibility for the 35-day shutdown, bolstering aims to remain credible in light of his declining approval ratings. It is no doubt that the shutdown has in some degree impacted Trump’s political career negatively. The question still remains, however, to what degree is this a win for Democratic Party in the 2020 presidential race?
It is no secret that Trump’s base is one of the most powerful of any president in modern American history. Despite the impending Mueller report, the inordinate number of lies, his questionable alliance with Saudi Arabia, and numerous other offenses, Trump remains very popular among his base. Why is this so? Trump’s promise to build the wall was a popular campaign slogan, building off not only the anti-immigrant Republican sentiment but also attracting the vulnerable working class of America. Hillary’s downfall was losing this base of American people while Trump capitalized off ‘The Border Wall’ on the debunked notion that illegal immigrants are stealing jobs and destroying the economy.
President Trump and the GOP understand if they fail to deliver the wall, it will be easily weaponized by the Democratic Party in the 2020 election. However, the government shutdown proved to be a huge detriment for the working-class Trump promised to support. When the administration suspended the payment of approximately 800,000 federal workers, Trump’s approval ratings began to fall. Led by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Democrats united against compromise and succeeded after the spending bill was passed.
Besides a huge victory, the spending bill could be one of the key distinguishing issues of the Democratic primary. The spending bill that ended the shutdown is one of the largest blows to the Trump administration. Mitch McConnell worked endlessly to persuade Trump to sign it, supporting a national emergency instead, knowing a veto would be disastrous to the GOP party. The bill limits Trump from building his proposed wall, but rather allows for increased funding of the fencing that currently exists. It increased funding for alternatives to detention like ankle bracelets and protects sponsors from detention or deportation. The only arguably significant concession was increased bedding in detention centers of 45,274 beds, although still falling below Trump’s request of 52,000. Despite these great successes, four Democratic presidential candidates voted against this bill: Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Cory Booker. They reasoned that they didn’t want to provide any funding for ICE or the wall even if it meant prolonging the shutdown. It is likely that candidates such as Bernie Sanders, who has a decent shot at the nomination, will use this to demonstrate their opponents’ weaknesses.
The 2020 Democratic Primary will be filled with numerous and diverse candidates: women, racial minorities—even Populists. As the Democratic Party has become much more progressive, there are few distinguishing ideas and identities between many of the most popular candidates. The government shutdown will be important for Democrats in the general election, but it might be an issue that will help determine who will be nominated as well. It is still hard to say whether this will remain true since many other important issues are at the forefront. Most importantly, there has been little to no media coverage on the votes of the spending bill and its implications for democratic candidates. What can be said is that it the bill was a decisive and significant win for the Democratic Party moving forward into the general election.
by ANDREA REIER